Money Talk

Common Sense

Ain’t So Common

’Tis early days, but what have we learned from the virus crisis?

One thing is that we don’t know what we don’t know. And we are often not certain about what we think we do know. For instance, we don’t know whether we should tell people to stay home, inside. Or should we encourage them to get out in the fresh air. Some experts say stay inside. Others throw facts at us
that refute this.

They show if you are inside with others you are far more likely to transmit or pick up the virus. They argue that the best place to be is outside. Where transmission is much less likely.

That is a pretty basic thing to disagree about. Especially after four months. Especially after decades of dealing with viruses.

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This tops the list of things experts are not sure about. How far should we social-distance? Don’t worry about it, some experts tell us. Six-feet is best, say others. One expert told the world that 27 feet was ideal. I am guessing he lives in the Sahara.

Or in a cave.

Should we wear masks? Some say yes, some no. Some said no, but changed their minds.

Do lockdowns work better when enforced before the virus arrives? Or maybe after it has arrived? Or maybe not at all?

Are our virus death tolls accurate?

Or are they exaggerated? Some states apparently record virus deaths much differently than others.
Why is it that 80 percent of Minnesota virus deaths were in old-age facilities? But in other states the percentages were much lower? That seems odd.

And what is the death rate from the virus? What is the infection rate? Experts still disagree about these. And they change their figures every few weeks. Our Center for Disease Control has been all over the park with its figures.

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We are lucky that most of their revisions are downward. That is, these days they think the virus is not as virulent as they thought earlier. The CDC’s latest figure for infection rates is 1 in 1,000 for those under 50 who are not in nursing homes. Their death rates are 1 in nearly 7,000 overall. But almost all of these folks have – or had – other serious health issues.

I hesitate to use the word “latest.” Odds are good that the CDC will change their figures before this is printed. And some experts believe the true figures are higher than the CDC’s. Some think they are lower.

Does the virus spread easily on surfaces? Some experts insist it does. And that we should spray and clean every surface near us every few minutes. Others reckon this is bunk. The CDC has basically said yes and no. Great.

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A big lesson we have learned is that the virus is political. It affects Republicans differently than Democrats. Most Democrat-controlled cities and states report much different figures. From the New York Times front page: THE CORONAVIRUS IS DEADLIEST WHERE DEMOCRATS LIVE.
Counties won by President
Trump in 2016 have reported
just 27 percent of the deaths – even though 45 percent of Americans live in these communities.
This may explain why Democrat-controlled states tend toward lockdowns and restrictions. While Republican-run states tend toward measures to open up their states. This gets you into a chicken and egg situation. Maybe the lockdowns have made matters worse?
Of course, New York is wall-to-wall Democrat. And wall-to-wall virus, compared to other states. You probably have seen the comparisons between Florida and New York. The states are similar in many respects. Their governors took opposite courses in handling the crises. The results are opposite. Political folks will argue about this for years.
One lesson we have re-learned is that politicians
are quick to point fingers during a crisis. They instantly
blame leaders in the other party. But they rarely admit their own errors and misjudgements.
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In the midst of this confusion, consider “deaths of despair”. That is, deaths by suicide, drug abuse, alcohol, beatings and abuse. I understand these are more numerous lately in areas with severe lockdowns. One expert tells us these “added” deaths are nearly as high as the virus deaths.
In the face of all this you might be tempted to fall back on a few old pearls. I am: The obvious ain’t so obvious. And common sense ain’t so common. We sometimes gallop off in all directions. And too often we don’t know our backside from second base.
Cliches to the rescue.