Stealth Omicron
By Richard Sternberg, M.D.
While Omicron appears to be peaking in New York overall (though not yet in Otsego County) we have now been told that there is a new “stealth” version of Omicron named BA.2 that is beginning to replace the variant we have been experiencing for the last two months. While it is too early to know for sure, BA.2 does not seem to be more virulent than the original Omicron BA.1, but appears to be even more transmissible. And while not likely to lead to another disastrous surge it will probably extend its length.
About a month after Omicron first appeared in Africa, scientists saw a unique variant that carried many but not all of its mutations and had new mutations of its own (labeled BA.2). Additionally, they found a third variant — BA.3 — which appears to be an amalgam of BA.1 and BA.2, theorized to have resulted from BA.1 and BA.2 infecting someone at the same time, exchanging genetic information with the new variant, then replicating.
BA.1 contains a mutation rendering it invisible to the standard PCR test. BA.2 doesn’t contain this mutation, allowing all three coronavirus genes to be seen in the test. BA.2 therefore can be separated from BA.1. It can also be separated by genome sequencing, though that isn’t routinely done because it is much more expensive and time consuming.
Internationally, the percentage testing positive for BA.2 is rising rapidly and soon will be the dominant version. Luckily, vaccines remain effective protection. The problem is that it is more transmissible than BA.1 and all other versions of COVID we know to date, and therefore will infect an even higher percentage of the population at the same time. This will slow the decrease of cases and delay the downward trend that we were beginning to see. Scientists are not sure if it will slow down the pandemic’s curve or just create a small blip in the current curve of number of cases. It is
not clear what, if anything, BA.3 will do.
We will never put the genie back in the bottle and eliminate COVID. It is too slippery. People will continue to contract it and people will die. Some will develop nonlethal symptoms but will have permanent disability, Long COVID. Despite being very protective I expect I will, at some time and maybe multiple times, develop a case. What I have to do is stay up-to-date on vaccines, try to maintain distance when interacting with people, wear a mask in public when possible, which is when not eating, and self-test or otherwise get a rapid test at any sign of illness with symptoms consistent with COVID. If the self-test is positive or if the symptoms are severe and the self-test is negative, then a PCR test, which is more accurate, should be done.
The idea that one will catch COVID does not mean one should do nothing to prevent severe disease or fail to decrease the frequency of having an episode. It still kills and significantly disables.